L. Robin Keller

picture of L. Robin  Keller

Professor, School of Business
Paul Merage School of Business

Ph.D., University of California, Los Angeles, 1982
M.B.A., UCLA, 1976
B.A., UCLA, 1974, Mathematics

Phone: (949) 824-6348
Email: lrkeller@uci.edu

University of California, Irvine
327 SB2
Mail Code: 3125
Irvine, CA 92697
Research Interests
L. Robin Keller is an expert in decision analysis, risk analysis, creative problem structuring and behavioral decision theory.
Academic Distinctions
Ramsey Medalist, Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS
Kimball Medalist, INFORMS
Former President, INFORMS
Former Editor-in-Chief, Decision Analysis
Research Abstract
Professor Keller's decision analysis research focuses on the development of prescriptive techniques for analyzing decisions. She examines aids for creatively structuring decision problems, and investigates models of perceived riskiness and of the fairness of the distribution of risks among groups.

Decision analytic techniques for guiding in-depth analyses of decision alternatives are applied to problems in a variety of private and public arenas. For example, Dr. Keller has conducted an Environmental Protection Agency study of health risks to patients associated with carbon monoxide air pollution. She has also modeled the multi-attribute decision of a pharmaceutical firm in choosing whether to market a new drug, with Dr. Stuart Eriksen. In another study, Dr. Keller and Dr. Joanna Ho have examined probability judgments of auditors. She also has examined differences in how Americans and Chinese make decisions regarding health and safety outcomes and economic outcomes with Dr. Wen-Qiang Bian.

From 1989-91, Dr. Keller served as a program director for the Decision, Risk, and Management Science Program of the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) in Washington, D.C. She managed the allocation of research grants from a $3 million annual budget. She also served as the NSF representative to the Subcommittee on Risk Assessment of the Committee on Life Sciences and Health of the Federal Coordinating Council on Science, Engineering, and Technology in the Office of Science Technology Policy, which is headed by the Assistant to the (United States) President for Science and Technology. While in Washington, Dr. Keller wrote a paper on managing risks in Antarctica, since NSF manages U.S. scientific efforts in Antarctica.
Books, Letter Report
and Dissertation,
Numbered from 300

300. L. Robin Keller. 1982. The Effects of Decision Problem Representation on Conformity with Utility Properties: An Empirical Investigation, doctoral dissertation, UCLA Graduate School of Management, September. Available from University Microfilms International.

301. Distribution and Administration of Potassium Iodide in the Event of a Nuclear Incident. Book, 2004. Committee to Assess the Distribution and Administration of Potassium Iodide in the Event of a Nuclear Incident, Board of Radiation Effects Research, Division of Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council of the National Academies, National Academies Press, Washington, DC, www.nap.edu. (Keller served as the decision analyst on the committee of scientists.) http://www.nap.edu/catalog/10868/distribution-and-administration-of-potassium-iodide-in-the-event-of-a-nuclear-incident; http://www.nap.edu/read/10868/chapter/1

Book is authored by the “Committee”

DAVID J. TOLLERUD, Chair, University of Louisville
DAVID V. BECKER, New York Presbyterian Hospital-Weill Cornell Medical College
LEWIS E. BRAVERMAN, Boston University School of Medicine
L. ROBIN KELLER, University of California, Irvine
KAREN S. LANGLEY, University of Utah
TIMOTHY J. MAHER, Mass. College of Pharmacy & Health Sci.
KENNETH MILLER, Penn. State Hershey Medical Center
CHRISTOPH H-J REINERS, University of Würzburg
JOHN J. RUSSELL, Washington State University, Richland
ROBERT H. VOLLAND, Federal Emergency Mgt. Agency (ret.)
EDWARD L. WILDS, Conn. Department of Environ. Protection
Sir E. DILLWYN WILLIAMS, Christ's College, Cambridge
LAUREN ZEISE, California Environmental Protection Agency

302. Letter Report on the Development of a Model for Ranking FDA Product Categories on the Basis of Health Risks. 2009. Committee on Ranking FDA Product Categories Based on Health Consequences, February 17, Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council, Institute of Medicine.

Report is authored by the “Committee”

ROBERT LAWRENCE, Chair, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore
JAMES ANDERSON, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland
FRANCISCO DIEZ-GONZALEZ, University of Minnesota, St. Paul
KATHRYN EDWARDS, Vanderbilt University, School of Medicine
SUSAN ELLENBERG, University of Pennsylvania
PAUL FISCHBECK, Carnegie Mellon University
HELEN JENSEN, Iowa State University
L. ROBIN KELLER, University of California, Irvine
DAVID MELTZER, University of Chicago
SANFORD MILLER, University of Maryland
RICHARD PLATT, Harvard Medical School
KIMBERLY THOMPSON, Harvard School of Public Health

303. A Risk-Characterization Framework for Decision-Making at the Food and Drug Administration. Book, May 2011. Committee on Ranking FDA Product Categories Based on Health Consequences Phase II Report, Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council, Institute of Medicine, Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, for the FDA. http://dels.nas.edu/Report/Risk-Characterization-Framework-Decision/13156.

Book is authored by the “Committee”

ROBERT S. LAWRENCE, Chair, Johns Hopkins
JEFFREY B. BENDER, University of Minnesota
FRANCISCO DIEZ-GONZALEZ, University of Minnesota
KATHRYN M. EDWARDS, Vanderbilt University
SUSAN S. ELLENBERG, University of Pennsylvania
PAUL S. FISCHBECK, Carnegie Mellon University
KAREN E. JENNI, Insight Decisions LLC, Denver
HELEN H. JENSEN, Iowa State University
L. ROBIN KELLER, University of California, Irvine
JAMES D. MCKEAN, Iowa State University
DAVID O. MELTZER, University of Chicago
SANFORD A. MILLER, University of Maryland
RICHARD PLATT, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Harvard Medical School
JOHN T. WATSON, University of California, San Diego

304. Designing Safety Regulations for High-Hazard Industries, Transportation Research Board Special Report, A Report of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/24907. Committee for a Study of Performance-Based Safety Regulation. Freely downloadable at https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24907/designing-safety-regulations-for-high-hazard-industries.

“Many countries, including the United States, use forms of performance-based regulation to promote safety and reduce risk in high-hazard industries. The term “performance-based” is often used to refer to (a) standards that mandate outcomes and give firms flexibility in how to meet them, or (b) requirements for firms to use management systems consisting of internal plans and practices for promoting safety and reducing risk. Performance-based regulation is usually contrasted with “prescriptive” regulation – sometimes called specification, design, or technology standards – that requires firms to adopt specific means to promote safety and reduce risks. This study will compare the advantages and disadvantages of prescriptive- and performance-based forms of safety regulation and identify possible opportunities for, and constraints on, making greater use of the latter. The study will be informed by experiences of performance-based safety regulation in the U.S. and abroad and will make recommendations about the application of this regulatory approach in high-hazard industries, such as off-shore oil and gas, pipelines, and other modes of transportation.”

Book is authored by the “Committee” https://www8.nationalacademies.org/cp/CommitteeView.aspx?key=49767

CARY COGLIANESE, University of Pennsylvania
LOUIS ANTHONY (Tony) COX, Cox Associates, LLC
ROBIN L. DILLON-MERRILL, Georgetown University
LOIS EPSTEIN, The Wildlife Society
L. ROBIN KELLER, University of California, Irvine
ALLISON MACFARLANE, George Washington University
RACHEL McCANN, Health and Safety Executive, UK
ARTHUR MEYER, Enbridge Pipeline (retired)
DONALD MOYNIHAN, University of Wisconsin, Madison
SUSAN SILBEY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JAMES WATSON, American Bureau of Shipping

1. L. Robin Keller, "The Effects of Problem Representation on the Sure-Thing and Substitution Principles," Management Science, Volume 31, No. 6, June 1985, pp. 738-751.

2. L. Robin Keller, "An Empirical Investigation of Relative Risk Aversion," IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Volume 15, No. 4, 1985, pp. 475-482.

3. L. Robin Keller, "Testing the 'Reduction of Compound Alternatives' Principle," OMEGA, The International Journal of Management Science, Volume 13, No. 4, July-August, 1985, pp. 349-358.

4. L. Robin Keller, Rakesh K. Sarin, and Martin Weber, "Empirical Investigation of Some Properties of the Perceived Riskiness of Gambles," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Volume 38, August 1986, pp. 114-130.

5. L. Robin Keller and Rakesh K. Sarin, "Equity in Social Risk: Some Empirical Observations," Risk Analysis, Volume 8, No. 1, March 1988, pp. 135-146.

6. L. Robin Keller and Joanna Ho, "Decision Problem Structuring: Generating Options," IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. 18, No. 5, September 1988, pp. 715-728.

7. Peter H. Farquhar and L. Robin Keller, "Preference Intensity Measurement," Annals of Operations Research, Vol. 19, 1989, pp. 205-217.

8. L. Robin Keller, "The Role of Generalized Utility Theories in Descriptive, Prescriptive, and Normative Decision Analysis," Information and Decision Technologies, Vol. 15, 1989, pp. 259-271.

9. L. Robin Keller, "Decision Research with Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Purposes-Some Comments," Annals of Operations Research, Vol. 19, (volume on Choice Under Uncertainty edited by Peter Fishburn and Irving H. LaValle), 1989, pp. 485-487. Entire edited volume won 1991 Decision Analysis Publication Award from the ORSA Decision Analysis Special Interest Group.

10. Richard L. Daniels and L. Robin Keller, "An Experimental Evaluation of the Descriptive Validity of Lottery Dependent Utility Theory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Vol. 3, 1990, pp. 115-134.

11. Richard L. Daniels and L. Robin Keller, "Choice-Based Assessment of Utility Functions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 52, 1992, pp. 524-543.

12. L. Robin Keller, Uzi Segal, and Tan Wang, "The Becker-de Groot-Marschak Mechanism and Generalized Utilized Theories: Theoretical Predictions and Empirical Observations," Theory and Decision, 34:83-97, 1993.

13. Stuart Eriksen and L. Robin Keller, "A Multi-Attribute Utility Approach to Weighing the Risks and Benefits of Pharmaceutical Agents,” Medical Decision Making, 1993; 13:118-125.

14. Joanna Ho and L. Robin Keller, "The Effect of Inference Order and Experience-Related Knowledge on Diagnostic Conjunction Probabilities," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1994; 59: 51-74.

15. L. Robin Keller and Rakesh K. Sarin, “Fair Processes for Societal Decisions Involving Distributional Inequalities,” Risk Analysis, Vol. 15, No. 1 (February 1995), pp. 49-59.

16. Lauraine G. Chestnut, L. Robin Keller, William E. Lambert, and Robert Rowe, "Measuring Heart Patients' Willingness to Pay for Changes in Angina Symptoms," Medical Decision Making, January-March, Vol. 16, 1996, pp. 65-77.

17. L. Robin Keller and Craig W. Kirkwood, “The Founding of INFORMS: A Decision Analysis Perspective," Operations Research, 47 (1), January-February 1999, 16-28.

18. Young-Hee Cho, L. Robin Keller, and M. Lynne Cooper, "Applying Decision-Making Approaches to Health Risk-Taking Behaviors: Progress and Remaining Challenges," Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 43(2), June 1999, 261-285.

19. Wen-Qiang Bian and L. Robin Keller, “Chinese and Americans Agree on What Is Fair, but Disagree on What Is Best in Societal Decisions Affecting Health and Safety Risks,” Risk Analysis, 19 (3), 1999, 433-446.

20. Wen-Qiang Bian and L. Robin Keller, "Patterns of Fairness Judgments in North America and the People's Republic of China," Journal of Consumer Psychology, 8 (3), 1999, 301-320.

21. Monika I. Winn and L. Robin Keller, “A Modeling Methodology for Multi-Objective Multi-Stakeholder Decisions: Implications for Research," Journal of Management Inquiry, Vol. 10, No. 2, June 2001, 166-181. Winner of the “Breaking the Frame Award” at Western Academy of Management meeting in March 2002 by the Journal of Management Inquiry for best paper of 2001.

22. L. Robin Keller and Elisabetta Strazzera, “Examining Predictive Accuracy Among Discounting Models,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Vol. 24:2, 143-160, 2002.

23. Jeffery L. Guyse, L. Robin Keller and Thomas Eppel “Valuing Environmental Outcomes: Preferences for Constant or Improving Sequences,” recipient of finalist award in Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS Student Paper Competition. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 87, No. 2, March 2002, 253-277.

24. Joanna L. Ho, L. Robin Keller, and Pam Keltyka, “Managers’ Variance Investigation Decisions: An Experimental Examination of Probabilistic and Outcome Ambiguity,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 14, 257-278, 2001.

25. Joanna L. Ho, L. Robin Keller, and Pam Keltyka, “Effects of Outcome and Probabilistic Ambiguity on Managerial Choices,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 24 (2002) 1: 47-74.

26. Joanna L. Ho, L. Robin Keller, and Pamela Keltyka, “How Do Information Ambiguity and Timing of Contextual Information Affect Managers’ Goal Congruence in Making Investment Decisions in Good Times vs. Bad Times?” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 31 (Sept. 2005) 2: 163-186.

27. S. David Brazer and L. Robin Keller, "A Conceptual Framework for Multiple Stakeholder Educational Decision Making,” International Journal of Education Policy and Leadership, 1(3) 1-14. September 18, 2006, retrieved from http://www.ijepl.org. (As of 1-24-07, the article had been downloaded more than any other in this journal, new at the time (1,056 times). The next closest paper was 802 downloads.)

28. Tianjun Feng and L. Robin Keller, “A Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis for Terrorism Protection: Potassium Iodide Distribution in Nuclear Incidents,” Decision Analysis, (June 2006), 3 (2): 76-93, http://da.journal.informs.org/content/3/2/76.abstract.

29. L. Robin Keller, Rakesh K. Sarin, Jayavel Sounderpandian, “An Examination of Ambiguity Aversion: Are Two Heads Better Than One?” Judgment and Decision Making, (Dec. 2007) 2(5), 390-397. (Appeared in Dec. 2007, vol. 2, issue 6, but header on paper says issue 5.) Accepted 12-2007. Available online: http://journal.sjdm.org/vol2.6.htm. Earlier title of working paper with some data not included in final published version: http://repositories.cdlib.org/anderson/dotm/kell001. “An Examination of Ambiguity Aversion in Decisions Made by Dyads,” Working Paper kell001, UCLA Decisions, Operations, and Technology Management.

30. Tianjun Feng, L. Robin Keller, Xiaona Zheng. 2008. “Modeling Multi-Objective Multi-Stakeholder Decisions: A Case-Exercise Approach,” INFORMS Transactions on Education (online journal: http://ite.pubs.informs.org/). 8(3) 103-114, at http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/ited.1080.0012 .

31. L. Robin Keller, Craig W. Kirkwood (Arizona State University), and Nancy S. Jones, (Baltimore Metropolitan Council). 2010. “Assessing Stakeholder Evaluation Concerns: An Application to the Central Arizona Water Resources System,” Systems Engineering. 13(1), 58-71. (Accepted on 8/20/08. DOI 10.1002/sys.20132. Published online in advance of printing on Wiley InterScience www.interscience.wiley.com)

32. Tianjun Feng L. Robin Keller, Xiaona Zheng (Associate Professor at Peking University and former Merage PhD student), 2011, “Decision Making in the Newsvendor Problem: A Cross-national Laboratory Study,” OMEGA, The International Journal of Management Science. 39(1) 41-50. (Accepted on 2/17/10, submitted 5/17/09. Online publication in advance of print: 2/22/10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2010.02.003)

33. Tianjun Feng, L. Robin Keller, Liangyan Wang (UCI Merage PhD alumna, associate professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University), and Yitong Wang. October 2010. “Product Quality Risk Perceptions and Decisions: Contaminated Pet Food and Lead-Painted Toys,” Risk Analysis, 30(10) 1572–1589 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01459.x/abstract (Accepted 5/5/10, appeared online prior to print. 0272-4332/10/0100-0001).

34. James M. Leonhardt (Marketing PhD student at the time, now Assistant Professor, Univ. Nevada, Reno), L. Robin Keller and Cornelia Pechmann. October 2011. “Avoiding the Risk of Responsibility by Seeking Uncertainty: Responsibility Aversion and Preference for Indirect Agency When Choosing for Others,” Journal of Consumer Psychology, 21(4) 405-413. Accepted 1-28-11, doi:10.1016/j.jcps.2011.01.001. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057740811000155 Working paper version: Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2015956. Leonhardt received a finalist award in the 2013 Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS Student Paper competition for this paper.

Uncertainty-seeking behavior is currently understood as the result of loss aversion which motivates a preference for the possibility to avoid or lessen an otherwise sure loss. However, when choosing among negative options on behalf of others, we offer responsibility aversion as another possible motive for uncertainty-seeking behavior. Within our conceptual model, responsibility aversion is defined as the preference to minimize one’s causal role in outcome generation. Compared to certain options, uncertain options lessen the decision maker’s causal role in outcome generation because the outcomes are partially determined by chance. The presence of chance increases indirect agency on behalf of the decision maker and lessens his or her perceived risk of responsibility. The results of five studies support a responsibility aversion motivation behind uncertainty-seeking behavior.

35. Dipayan Biswas (UCI Merage PhD alumnus, Bentley College at the time, now Associate Professor, University of South Florida), L. Robin Keller, Bidisha Burman (Appalachian State). April 2012. “Making probability judgments of future product failures: The role of mental unpacking,” Journal of Consumer Psychology, 22(2) 237-248. Accepted 3-9-11, doi:10.1016/j.jcps.2011.03.002, Available online 27 April 2011.

When consumers mentally unpack (i.e., imagine) the reasons for product failure, their probability judgments of future product failures are higher than when no mental unpacking is undertaken. However, increasing the level of mental unpacking does not lead to monotonically increasing effects on probability judgments but results in inverted U-shaped relationships. Using a two-factor structure, we propose that when consumers undertake mental unpacking, there will be two conflicting processes; while imagining causes for an event will lead to greater perceived probability, the greater difficulty in generating reasons for an event will lead to lower perceived probability.

36. Yitong Wang (UCI Merage doctoral alumnus, Assistant Professor, Tsinghua University when accepted, now a Lecturer (i.e., assistant professor), University of Technology, Sydney), Tianjun Feng, L. Robin Keller. December 2013. “A Further Exploration of the Uncertainty Effect,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 47(3) 291-310, accepted 1-25-2013. (Request print copy from author http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11166-013-9180-x, only working paper version can be posted online.). Published on 11-24-13 in 'Online First' on SpringerLink.

Individual valuation of a binary lottery at values less than the lottery’s worst outcome has been designated as the “uncertainty effect”. Our paper aims to explore the boundary conditions of the uncertainty effect by investigating a plausible underlying process and proposing two possible methods. First, we examine how providing an exogenous evaluation opportunity prior to judging the value of the lottery affects individuals’ judgments, and find that first valuing the worst outcome and then the lottery eliminates the uncertainty effect. Second, we explore if introducing additional cognitive load dampens how far decision makers correct their initial evaluations, and find that additional cognitive load is able to eliminate the uncertainty effect.

37. Tianjun Feng (UCI Merage doctoral alumnus, Associate Professor at Fudan University), L. Robin Keller, Ping Wu (Fudan University), Yifan Xu (Fudan University). 2014. “An Empirical Study of the Toxic Capsule Crisis in China: Risk Perceptions and Behavioral Responses,” 34(4) 698-710, Risk Analysis, accepted 6-18-2013, online in early view on 7-16-13, doi: 10.1111/risa.12099, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/risa.12099/abstract. (Request print copy from author, only working paper version can be posted online 6 months after print.)

The outbreak of the toxic capsule crisis during April 2012 aroused widespread public concern about the risk of chromium-contaminated capsules and drug safety in China. In this paper, we develop a conceptual model to investigate risk perceptions of the pharmaceutical drug capsules and behavioral responses to the toxic capsule crisis and the relationship between associated factors and these two variables. An online survey was conducted to test the model, including questions on the measures of perceived efficacy of the countermeasures, trust in the State FDA (Food and Drug Administration), trust in the pharmaceutical companies, trust in the pharmaceutical capsule producers, risk perception, concern, need for information, information seeking, and risk avoidance. In general, participants reported higher levels of risk perception, concern, and risk avoidance, and lower levels of trust in the three different stakeholders. The results from the structural equation modeling procedure suggest that perceived efficacy of the countermeasures is a predictor of each of the three trust variables; however, only trust in the State FDA has a dampening impact on risk perception. Both risk perception and information seeking are significant determinants of risk avoidance. Risk perception is also positively related to concern. Information seeking is positively related to both concern and need for information. The theoretical and policy implications are also discussed.

Media coverage by Merage:
"Toxic Capsule Crisis: Study Sheds Light on Health Care Consumer Attitudes in China," Merage Magazine, 2014-2015 issue, printed page 38-39, by Connie Clark. “Toxic Capsule Crisis” at https://merage.uci.edu/news/2014/10/toxic-capsule-crisis.html.

38. Jay Simon (Merage doctoral alumnus, Assistant Professor, at time of publication at Defense Resources Management Institute, Naval Postgraduate School, now American University, Wash. DC), Craig W. Kirkwood, (W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University), L. Robin Keller. Jan.-Feb. 2014. “Decision Analysis with Geographically Varying Outcomes: Preference Models and Illustrative Applications,” Operations Research, 62(1) 182-194. Online in Articles in Advance on Dec. 16, 2013. http://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/opre.2013.1217. Supplement:

This paper presents decision analysis methodology for decisions based on data from geographic information systems. The consequences of a decision alternative are modeled as distributions of outcomes across a geographic region. We discuss conditions which may conform with the decision maker’s preferences over a specified set of alternatives; then we present specific forms for value or utility functions that are implied by these conditions. Decisions in which there is certainty about the consequences resulting from each alternative are considered first; then probabilistic uncertainty about the consequences is included as an extension. The methodology is applied to two hypothetical urban planning decisions involving water use and temperature reduction in regional urban development, and fire coverage across a city. These examples illustrate the applicability of the approach and the insights that can be gained from using it.

39. Lindsey E. Minion, MD (Univ. of Arizona Cancer Center & Creighton University at St. Joseph’s Hospital and Medical Center, Phoenix); Jiaru Bai (Merage doctoral student); Bradley J. Monk, MD (Gynecologic Oncology, UCI); L. Robin Keller, PhD; Ramez N. Eskander, MD (Gynecologic Oncology, UCI); Gareth K. Forde, MD, PhD, MBA (Gynecologic Oncology, UCI); John K. Chan, MD (California Pacific Palo Alto Medical Foundation, Sutter Cancer Institute, San Francisco), Krishnansu S. Tewari (Gynecologic Oncology, UCI), “A Markov Model to Evaluate Cost-Effectiveness of Antiangiogenesis Therapy Using Bevacizumab in Advanced Cervical Cancer,” Gynecologic Oncology, 137 (3), June 2015, 490-496. Accepted 2-28-2015. Available online on 10 March 2015. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0090825815006769#.

Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of bevacizumab in recurrent/persistent and metastatic cervical cancer using recently reported updated survival and toxicology data.
Methods: A Markov decision tree based on the Gynecologic Oncology Group 240 randomized trial was created. The 2013 MediCare Services Drug Payment Table and Physician Fee Schedule provided costs. In the 5-year model subjects transitioned through the following states: response, progression, minor complications, severe complications, death. Patients experiencing a health utility per month according to treatment effectiveness were calculated. Because cervical cancer survival is measured in months rather than years, results were reported in both quality adjusted cervical cancer life months and years (QALmonth, QALY), adjusted from a baseline of having advanced cervical cancer during a month.
Results: The estimated total cost of therapy with bevacizumab is approximately 13.2 times that for chemotherapy alone, adding $73,791 per 3.5 months (0.29 year) of life gained, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $21,083 per month of added life. The ICER increased to $5,775 per month of added life and $24,597/QALmonth ($295,164/QALY) due to the smaller difference in QALmonths. With 75% bevacizumab cost reduction, the ICER is $6,737/QALmonth ($80,844/ QALY), which translates to $23,580 for the 3.5 month (0.29 year) gain in OS.
Conclusions: Increased cost is primarily related to the cost of drug and not the management of bevacizumab-induced complications. Cost reductions in bevacizumab result in dramatic declines in the ICER, suggesting that cost reconciliation in advanced cervical cancer may be possible through the availability of biosimilars, and/or less expensive, equally efficacious anti-angiogenesis agents.
Erratum: In the transitions probability Table 2, the probability of going from “severe complications” to “progress” in one month is 0.9 (not 0), and the probability of going from “severe complications” to “die” is 0 (not 0.9), for both treatment options.

40. Yitong Wang (University Technology Sydney lecturer, i.e., asst. prof.), Liangyan Wang (Shanghai Jiao Tong University assoc. prof. and Merage PhD alumna), L. Robin Keller, “Discounting over Subjective Time: Subjective Time Perception Helps Explain Multiple Discounted Utility Anomalies,” International Journal of Research in Marketing, 32 (2015), pp. 445–448, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijresmar.2015.08.006. Final version published online: 30-NOV-2015. Accepted in August 2015.

Consumers often face choices involving intertemporal tradeoffs. Existing research suggests that decision makers in general do not obey discounted utility theory because their discount rates are context dependent. Recent literature incorporates decision makers’ subjective perception of time into the classic discounted utility model and finds relatively constant discount rates over subjective time. In addition to replicating previous work, we investigated the missing component – the magnitude effect, provided a holistic view via a more comprehensive experiment including multiple anomalies, and found that subjective time perception was able to explain most of the anomalies simultaneously in a single scenario.

41. Baozhou Lu (School of Economics & Management, China University of Petroleum (UPC)), Tao Zhang (Shanghai Jiao Tong Ph.D. student & UPC), Liangyan Wang (Merage Ph.D. alumna, Assoc. Prof. Shanghai Jiao Tong), L. Robin Keller, “Trust Antecedents, Trust and Online Microsourcing Adoption: An Empirical Study from the Resource Perspective,” Decision Support Systems, 85 (May 2016) pp. 104–114, accepted March 2016.

The online microsourcing marketplace is a new form of outsourcing that is organized over online platforms for the performance of relatively small service tasks. Microsourcing offers a more flexible way to hire contract workers or to outsource. Prior research indicates the importance of individual-level trust when choosing providers in online sourcing marketplaces. We argue that institution-based trust is also crucial for online microsourcing adoptions. Drawing on a trust framework adapted from prior literature, this paper uncovers the trust-building mechanisms in online microsourcing marketplaces, as well as the marketplace-related attributes for online microsourcing adoption. The proposed research model is tested with a data set collected from the clients of a typical marketplace in China – zhubajie.com. The findings suggest that perceptions of resource-based attributes of a marketplace, together with the perceived effectiveness of its intermediary role, can help to build trust towards the marketplace, enhancing trust towards the community of providers and driving the intent to adopt online microsourcing. Thus, this paper confirms the roles of online marketplaces as both the resource pool and the transaction intermediary from the perspective of clients. Finally, this paper not only indicates the relevance of resource theories in understanding this new trend in outsourcing, but also suggests the importance of trusted relational governance in governing online microsourcing transactions.

Media coverage, featured in the China Cut, sponsored by the Long Institute:
Christine Chiao, “How Trust Is Built in Chinese E-Commerce” https://thechinacut.com/how-trust-can-be-built-in-ecommerce/

42. Liangyan Wang (Merage alumna and Associate Professor of Marketing, Antai Management School, Shanghai Jiao Tong University), Shijian Wang (just graduated student of marketing), L. Robin Keller, Jie Li (Assoc. Prof. of Market., Shanghai Jiao Tong Antai Mgt Sch.), “Thinking Styles Affect Reactions to Brand Crisis Apologies,” European Journal of Marketing, 50(Issue 7/8), Sept. 2016, pp. 1263-1289. abstract: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/EJM-07-2014-0457, accepted in March 2016.
Permanent link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/EJM-07-2014-0457.

Purpose – This article examines how a person’s thinking style, specifically holistic versus analytic, and a firm’s crisis apology with the remedial solution framed in “why” (vs. “how”) terms can interactively impact consumers’ perceived efficacy of the firm to respond to the crisis and their impression or evaluation of the brand.

Design/methodology/approach – Hypotheses were tested through three experimental studies involving 308 participants recruited in China. Participants answered survey questions investigating the interactive effects from consumers’ thinking style (culture as a proxy in study 1, measured in study 2 or primed in study 3) and a brand’s crisis apology with the remedial solution framed in “why” (vs. “how”) terms on consumers’ perceived efficacy and evaluation of the firm.

Findings –The frame of the remedial solution resulting in a higher evaluation improvement depended on a consumer’s thinking style. For holistic thinkers, a “why” (vs. “how”) framed remedial solution resulted in a higher evaluation improvement; however, for analytic thinkers, a “how” (vs. “why”) framed remedial solution resulted in a higher evaluation improvement. Additionally, the results showed that a consumer’s perceived efficacy of the brand being able to successfully respond to the crisis mediated the interactive effects of the remedial solution framing and thinking styles on the evaluation improvement.

Research limitations/implications – Different ways of framing the remedial solution in a firm’s apology will have different impacts on people with different thinking styles. Participants in studies 2 and 3 were recruited from samples on campus in China. Additionally, the automobile brand used in this study is fictional to avoid prior brand name or brand commitment impact.

Practical implications – Our findings provide evidence that framing of the remedial solution can be leveraged as a tool to reduce negative impact resulting from a brand crisis. Specifically, our results suggest that companies may do well to employ a “why” framed remedial solution, particularly in cases where consumers are likely to process information holistically. Conversely, a “how” framed remedial solution may be effective in situations where consumers are likely to process information analytically.

Originality/value – This research contributes to the literature, being among the first to consider how the remedial solution framing in a firm’s apology can enhance people’s evaluation of the brand and decrease the perceived negative impact resulting from the brand crisis.

This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Grant (71072059) and Shanghai Shuguang Program Grant (13SG16) to Liangyan Wang.

Media coverage, featured in the China Cut, sponsored by the Long Institute:
Christine Chiao, “For an Impactful Apology, Chinese Companies Should Consider Audience Thinking Style”, https://thechinacut.com/impactful-corporate-apology-chinese-companies/

43. Jiaru Bai (Merage PhD student), Cristina del Campo (Universidad Complutense de Madrid and UCI visitor in 2016), L. Robin Keller, “Markov Chain Models in Practice: A Review of Low Cost Software Options,” Publication in English, Spanish version also available: “Modelos de Cadenas de Markov en la Práctica: Una Revisión de Opciones de Software de Bajo Coste,” Investigación Operacional, 2017, Volume 38 (Issue 1), pp. 56-62, accepted May 30, 2016.

This paper was written in Spanish (and English) to facilitate communication with Spanish-speaking scholars in Cuba and elsewhere, who aim to conduct Markov cost effectiveness analyses and would benefit from low cost software alternatives. The working paper is in English and Spanish versions: investigacion_operacional_2016_06_28_Bai_delCampo_Keller_English,

Markov processes (or Markov chains) are used for modeling a phenomenon in which changes over time of a random variable comprise a sequence of values in the future, each of which depends only on the immediately preceding state, not on other past states. A Markov process (PM) is completely characterized by specifying the finite set S of possible states and the stationary probabilities (i.e. time-invariant) of transition between these states. The software most used in medical applications is produced by TreeAge, since it offers many advantages to the user. But, the cost of the TreeAge software is relatively high. Therefore in this article two software alternatives are presented: Sto Tree and the zero cost add-in program "markovchain" implemented in R. An example of a cost-effectiveness analysis of two possible treatments for advanced cervical cancer, previously conducted with the Treeage software, is re-analyzed with these two low cost software packages.

44. L. Robin Keller and Yitong Wang (Merage doctoral alumnus) “Information Presentation in Decision and Risk Analysis: Answered, Partly Answered, and Unanswered Questions,” 2017, Risk Analysis, 37(6): 1132–1145, accepted August 7, 2016.

Appeared online in early view prior to print: Information Presentation in Decision and Risk Analysis: Answered, Partly Answered, and Unanswered Questions, Version of Record online: 21 SEP 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/risa.12697

Abstract Article PDF(120K) References

For the last thirty years, researchers in risk analysis, decision analysis, and economics have consistently proven that decision makers employ different processes for evaluating and combining anticipated and actual losses, gains, delays and surprises. While rational models generally prescribe a consistent response, people’s heuristic processes will sometimes lead them to be inconsistent in the way they respond to information presented in theoretically equivalent ways. We point out several promising future research directions by listing and detailing a series of answered, partly answered, and unanswered questions.

45. Luping Sun, Xiaona Zheng, Meng Su, L. Robin Keller (2017), "Intention-Behavior Discrepancy of Foreign versus Domestic Brands in Emerging Markets: The Relevance of Consumer Prior Knowledge," Journal of International Marketing, published by the American Marketing Association, 25(1), pp. 91-109, accepted October 20, 2016. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1509/jim.15.0123.

Most research on the performance of foreign versus domestic brands in emerging markets examines measures of product evaluation or purchase intention. However, consumers intending to buy a product may switch to competing brands, displaying an intention-behavior discrepancy (IBD). Drawing upon literature on country associations and dual process theory, we examine the difference in IBD of foreign versus domestic brands in emerging markets and the moderating role of prior knowledge. We conducted an intention survey followed by a post-purchase survey in the Chinese automobile and smartphone industries. We found that foreign brands have an advantage on IBD relative to domestic brands, indicating that they have the dual advantage of higher evaluations and lower IBDs. Furthermore, foreign brands’ advantage on IBD is smaller for consumers with inaccurate prior knowledge, as they are more likely to systematically reprocess information and discount foreign brands’ favorable country associations. For these consumers, overestimating the product reduces foreign brands’ advantage to a smaller degree than underestimating it due to confirmation bias. These findings provide implications for brands in emerging markets.

46. L. Robin Keller, Jay Simon (Merage PhD alumnus), January 2019,“Preference Functions for Spatial Risk Analysis”, Risk Analysis, 39(1), pp. 244-256, in Special Issue: Advances in Spatial Risk Analysis, accepted 7-31-17, submitted 6-2016, Version of Record appeared online in early view prior to print: Sept. 7, 2017,: Abstract Article PDF(1822K). In print in Volume 39, Issue1, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12892.

When outcomes are de?ned over a geographic region, measures of spatial risk regarding these outcomes can be more complex than traditional measures of risk. One of the main challenges is the need for a cardinal preference function that incorporates the spatial nature of the outcomes. We explore preference conditions that will yield the existence of spatial measurable value and utility functions, and discuss their application to spatial risk analysis. We also present a simple example on household freshwater usage across regions to demonstrate how such functions can be assessed and applied.

47. James Leonhardt (Merage PhD alumnus, at Univ. of Nevada, Reno), L. Robin Keller, Fall 2018, "Do Pictographs Affect Probability Comprehension and Risk Perception of Multiple-Risk Communications?" Journal of Consumer Affairs, 52(3), pp. 756-769, accepted 12-22-17, published in Early View on 4-6-2018, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/joca.12185, Leonhardt-Keller- JOCA-Final.

Pictographs can be used to visually present probabilistic information using a matrix of icons. Previous research on pictographs has focused on single rather than multiple-risk options. The present research conducts a behavioral experiment to assess the effect of pictographs on probability comprehension and risk perception for single and multiple-risk options. The creation of the experimental stimuli is informed by a review of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s vaccine information sheets. The results provide initial evidence that, in the context of childhood vaccines, the inclusion of pictographs alongside numeric (e.g. 1 in 5) probability information can result in higher probability comprehension and lower risk perception for multiple-risk options but not for single-risk options. These findings have implications for how health-related risks are communicated to the public.

Partially funded by a fellowship (Leonhardt) from the Newkirk Center for Science and Society and conducted under UCI Institutional Review Board’s approved research protocol HS# 2009-7037.
L. Robin Keller and William E. Lambert, Multiattribute Utility Modeling of Cardiac Health Effects from Carbon Monoxide Exposure, in Y. Sawaragi, K. Inoue, and H. Nakayama (eds.), Toward Interactive and Intelligent Decision Support Systems, Volume 2, 1987; in Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems series, Volume 286, Springer Verlag, Berlin, pp. 200-209.
Ivy Broder and L. Robin Keller, Fairness of Distribution of Risks with Applications to Antarctica, in Barbara Mellers and Jonathan Baron (eds.), Psychological Perspectives on Justice: Theory and Application, Cambridge University Press, Ch. 14, pp. 292-312, 1993.
Professional Societies
INFORMS- The Institute for Operations Research & the Mgt. Scis.
Society for Risk Analysis
Society for Judgment and Decision Making
Society for Medical Decision Making
Other Experience
INFORMS (Professional society) —2015

Editor-in-Chief, Decision Analysis

Program Director, Dec. Risk & Mgt. Sci.
NSF 1989—1991

Research Centers
ITS Affiliated Faculty member
Long US-China Institute Core Faculty Member
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