Research Professor, Political Science
School of Social Sciences
Professor Emeritus, Tartu University, Estonia, Political Science
School of Social Sciences
PH.D., University of Delaware, 1965, Physics
M.A., (International Relations), University of Delaware, 1969
Phone: (949) 824-6137
Fax: (949) 824-8762
University of California, Irvine
2225 Social Sciences Plaza B
Mail Code: 5100
Irvine, CA 92697
Quantitatively predictive logical models; electoral and party systems; Finno-Ugric area studies.
Johann Skytte Prize in Political Science 2008, Uppsala; Lawrence Longley Award 2003, Am. Pol. Sci. Assoc.; George H. Hallett Award 1999, Am. Pol. Sci. Assoc.; Republic of Estonia Social Science Award 1999.
Professor Taagepera is interested in quantitatively predictive logical models in social sciences, to complement empirical data fits, and also in Baltic and Finno-Ugric area studies. His current work deals with predicting the number and size of parties on the basis of electoral systems, and the consequences for government stability. Professor Taagepera has also constructed and tested models for arms races, increase in world population, growth of historical empires, and dependence of foreign trade on population of the country. He has written books on contemporary Baltic history and the Finno-Ugric republics within the Russian Federation. As candidate for President of Estonia (1992), he received 23 % of popular votes. He was founding chair of a new Estonian party (2001-02) which later supplied a prime minister.
Parsimonious model for predicting mean cabinet duration on the basis of electoral system (with Allan Sikk), Party Politics, 2010.
Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models. Oxford UP 2008.
Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems. Oxford UP 2007.
National representation in international organizations: The seat allocation model implicit in the EU Council and Parliament (with Madelaine Hosli). Political Studies, 2006.
Party size baselines imposed by institutional constraints: Theory for simple electoral systems. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 2001.
The Finno-Ugric Republics and the Russian State. Hurst and Routledge, 1999. Also in Hungarian and Estonian.
Expansion and contraction patterns of large polities: Context for Russia. International Studies Quarterly, 1997.
Estonia: Return to Independence. Westview Press, 1993.
Predicting the number of parties (with M.S. Shugart). American Political Science Review, 1993.
The Baltic States: Years of Dependence, 1940-1990 (with R. Misiunas). Hurst and University of California Press, 1983 and 1993. Also published in Lithuanian, Hungarian and Estonian.
Seats and Votes: The Effects and Determinants of Electoral Systems (with M. S. Shugart). Yale University Press, 1989.
Softening Without Liberalization in the Soviet Union: The Case of Jüri Kukk. University Press of America, 1984.
Effective Number of Parties (with Markku Laakso). Comparative Political Studies, 1979.
American Political Science Association
Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies
Center for the Study of Democracy, UC Irvine